North Waziristan. Surgical Strikes

Surgical Strikes policy

Ever since the change of command at army and Joint staff level armed forces have resorted to retaliatory surgical strikes against militants in reaction to attacks on military personnel or installations. Bannu suicide bombing was retaliated with air strikes and artillery shelling of Mir Ali and surrounding areas. Army claimed to have killed terrorists including foreigners, a claim disputed by locals and some political parties. After that it has become a pattern that militant hideouts in North Waziristan villages are bombed for attacks anywhere in Pakistan. Latest bombing was in village Maachis in vicinity of Miransha. Located within five kms of army camp.  Maachis remained a no go area for the army for a decade. Again the disparity between army and social media reports regarding causalities being terrorists or civilians exists. Whatever the factual position, the fact remains that civilians are caught in the cross fire between army and TTP.

The legal justification for aerial bombing can be found in the law prevalent in FATA, the Frontier Crimes Regulations. The collective punishment clause authorizes such punitive measures against the tribes. It may sound ridiculous that a whole village is punished for misdeeds of a few but that is the law. Roads forts and Government installations belong to the government. The tribe/sub tribe is responsible to hand over the culprits who have attacked government personnel or property. FCR gives sweeping powers to the political administration. Though not practiced now but government can stop the business of the tribe anywhere in settled areas. Meaning that all the businesses run by Mehsuds or Wazirs tribes throughout Pakistan can be shut down.

Before the attack on Maachis, IED blast killed 9 security personnel and injured many in Ghulam Khan area. As per the norm political agent held meetings with the elders of the area and demanded handing over of the culprits but they rightly showed their inability to hand over or take action against the culprits. When such a situation occurs then political agent uses force. Demolition of houses is a normal punishment. Long before 9/11 markets in Bara Khyber Agency were demolished as part of collective punishment.

However this policy of retaliatory air strikes is not the solution to the problem of militancy and terrorism because it is reactive policy rather than proactive. Secondly it does not give you any advantage on land. TTP at present is fighting for its own leadership. A big chunk of Mehsud militants have disassociated itself from TTP. Seeing this Hafiz Gul Bahadur of NWA saw an opportunity to grab the leadership. He remained silent on the Military action at Mir Ali in February. Yet now he gave an ultimatum to the locals to migrate to Afghanistan by 10 June and decided to fight Pakistani forces. His threat was not taken seriously by locals and army. No mass scale migration took place. Now he has extended his ultimatum by 10 days but in my opinion he wants to increase his bargaining power. Government meanwhile talked to a 64 member jirga of Utmanzai Wazirs. Who have asked government to give it 15 days to talk to Taliban for a peaceful solution. Though headed by grandson of Faqir of Ippi, the best this jirga can get us is status quo. status quo is the last thing we should be looking for. We have to break it. The enemy is clearly desperate.  The rift in TTP and fearing losing leadership Fazlullah is mounting pressure in Bajaur to remain relevant. A reason for recent escalation of hostile activities in the area. This also is the best time for army to act. It carries the inherent danger that in case of army action militants may burry differences to fight as one entity. Thus a weakened TTP may be revived.

Local citizens are living in fear. Everyone is apprehensive about military action. Many have left but the bulk remains in their homes. With no directions from government, rumors are spreading about an imminent mass scale offensive by army. Government on its part does not seem to have any policy. Time now to have one.